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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 89

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to PHI 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 44 for 6 yards (53-D.Fleming).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 89, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model