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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 61

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 17 for 1 yard (38-E.Biggers).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model