Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 63

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(4:37) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PHI 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model