Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 83

New England Patriots 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

(10:21) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to PHI 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 34 for 6 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.14 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model