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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 35 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to NE 26, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 15-D.Johnson to NE 29 for 3 yards (53-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model