Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 70

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to PHI 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 33 for 14 yards (18-M.Slater). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on PHI-34-K.Barner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.42 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model