Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 80

New England Patriots 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(4:44) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PHI 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 43 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model