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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 8-D.Jones punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model