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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to SEA 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.48 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model