Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to SEA 39, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to MIN 42 for 19 yards (58-B.Watts). MIN-18-J.Locke was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model