Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(11:30) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to SEA 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.48 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model