Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 38 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to MIN 15, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 39 for 24 yards (91-C.Marsh, 33-K.McCray). PENALTY on MIN-59-J.Trusnik, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.57 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model