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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 9 yards (91-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP