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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:00) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to CHI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 37-B.Callahan for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CHI-52-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 31.

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 41, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model