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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(3:22) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback. San Francisco challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1 at 03:07.)

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP