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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 22

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.85 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP