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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 42

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 27 yards to SF 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.31 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP