Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 95

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Chicago Bears 13

(14:26) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SF 46, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -4.16 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.81 EP
75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 95, worth -5.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model