Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 55

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(12:58) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to SF 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model