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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CHI 42, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 41 for -1 yards (25-J.Ward; 50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model