Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(9:02) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to CHI 38, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 47 for 9 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model