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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 33

Chicago Bears 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP