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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to DAL 26, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 24 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.95 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 31, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model