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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to GB 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde to GB 26 for 1 yard (59-A.Hitchens).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP