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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DAL 24, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 22 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.12 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model