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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to DAL 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP