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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 53 yards to DAL 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 28 for -2 yards (83-J.Janis; 39-D.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model