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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to GB 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.00 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model