Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 28

(1:20) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short left to 82-J.Witten (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.74 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -0.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model