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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 12-A.Rodgers left guard to DAL 1 for no gain (96-N.Hayden).

The Three Options

GO +4.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model