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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 90

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to GB 49, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 33-M.Hyde to DAL 48 for 3 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.91 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP