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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 19-B.Anger punts 53 yards to IND 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 28 for no gain (57-T.Armbrister).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model