4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 1-P.McAfee punts 37 yards to JAX 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-83-D.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP