Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

(13:54) 1-P.McAfee punts 63 yards to JAX 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 20 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model