Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

(4:00) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to JAX 31, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model