4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 44

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (No Huddle) 6-C.Whitehurst up the middle to IND 31 for 2 yards (75-J.Odrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model