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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 44 – Indianapolis Colts 16
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 5-B.Bortles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth -0.08 EP
KICK
+2.21 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
