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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model