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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to IND 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray to IND 41 for 3 yards (46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model