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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model