Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 19-B.Anger punts 43 yards to IND 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray to IND 42 for 4 yards (87-N.Sterling). PENALTY on IND-30-D.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model