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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 27

Houston Texans 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model