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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 46

New England Patriots 10 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to HOU 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.16 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model