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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 90

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to NE 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin to HOU 41 for 12 yards (45-J.Prosch; 55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.61 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 90, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP