Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

(11:35) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to HOU 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-C.Shorts III to HOU 24 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.02 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model