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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 15

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short middle to 84-R.Griffin (34-L.Johnson) [99-D.Easley].

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.20 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model