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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 77

New England Patriots 20 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to HOU 39, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.81 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model