Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 92

New England Patriots 20 – Houston Texans 6

(2:47) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to HOU 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-C.Shorts III ran ob at HOU 39 for -2 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.61 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model