Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

(9:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to NE 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-K.Martin to NE 48 for 21 yards (52-B.Peters; 55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.97 EP
47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model