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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 34

Houston Texans 6 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer sacked at NE 38 for -4 yards (72-A.Hicks). HOU-7-B.Hoyer was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model